emailWaterboard prediction: "The US, UK and France have gone in too hard, too soon in dealing with Iran. Over excited at the start of the game they have laid all their cards on the table too early, and have convinced themselves and the world media that the Russians are ready to impose new tough sanctions on Iran. Watch for this "coalition" to disintegrate before December. Sanctions may be imposed on Iran but they will be much weaker than anything being envisaged right now. The refined oil embargo is a non-starter, neither an Israeli nor a US attack on Iran will materialise this, or next year. Obama is smarter than that and realises that the economic, and strategic effects of such a strike will be disastrous with no assurance of neutralising Iran's nuclear programme. How many other centrifuge sites do the Iranians have? who knows, but as Ahmedinejad recently said, Iran is a BIG COUNTRY."